(JUBA, SOUTH SUDAN) – South Sudan is projected to record the fastest economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa this year, driven by a recovery in oil production and expansion in the services sector, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook places South Sudan at the top of regional growth projections at 10.5%, followed by Ethiopia at 9.2% and Rwanda at 7.4% . The Fund’s regional outlook, released on 15th October, put Sub-Saharan Africa’s overall growth at 4.5%, above the global average of 3.1% .
The 10.5% figure represents a significant upward revision from earlier IMF estimates. In its April 2026 projections, the Fund had forecast South Sudan’s real GDP growth at 4.1% . The revision reflects stronger than expected oil sector performance following the resumption of production through the Petrodar pipeline in mid-2025 .
Oil output has risen from about 95,000 barrels per day to around 100,000 barrels per day, according to the Ministry of Petroleum. The increase follows new drilling in Blocks 3 and 7, including the Al Nahal field where a well is producing over 5,000 barrels per day . The Greater Pioneer Operating Company also reported raising production from 44,000 to 60,000 barrels per day, its highest level since beginning operations in 2005 .
South Sudan relies on oil for more than 90% of public revenue and about 95% of exports . The rebound in output follows a period of severe disruption after a pipeline link to Port Sudan was damaged during the conflict in neighbouring Sudan in 2023. The shutdown cut production from nearly 160,000 barrels per day to an average of 60,000, and the economy contracted by an estimated 23.8% in fiscal year 2025.
The growth projection comes with caveats. The IMF has warned that Sub-Saharan Africa’s resilience should not be mistaken for a permanent solution, with risks tilted to the downside including renewed energy supply disruptions, climate shocks and declining foreign aid . Median inflation across the region is expected to rise from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 5% in 2027 .
For South Sudan specifically, per capita growth remains weak despite the headline figure. The country’s nominal GDP is estimated at $6.07 billion in 2026, with GDP per capita at just $488 . Population growth continues to dilute gains in output per person.
The IMF’s growth figures for South Sudan have varied across different reports and vintages. While the October World Economic Outlook cited 10.5% for the region’s fastest grower, other IMF data sources have listed South Sudan’s 2026 projection at 4.1% or 4.14% . The discrepancy reflects different reporting frameworks and the timing of projections, with the higher figure tied to oil rebound tracking in the latest regional assessment.
Fitch Solutions had earlier forecast growth of 17.1% for South Sudan in 2026, citing the continued recovery of oil output following the pipeline reopening . The variance across forecasts reflects uncertainty over production levels, global oil prices and the pace of export normalisation.
The government has said it expects the oil sector to grow by about 37.8% in the 2026/2027 fiscal year, with the non-oil sector projected to expand by 5.5% . Finance Minister Barnaba Bak Chol has said fiscal policy is designed to be anti-inflationary, aimed at stabilising prices amid exchange rate pressures.
South Sudan’s economy remains fragile despite the growth headline. The country has faced chronic liquidity shortages, with commercial banks unable to access reserves held at the central bank and public servants unpaid for months. A parliamentary briefing in February revealed foreign reserves had fallen to just $74 million, covering about two weeks of imports.
The IMF’s regional outlook also warned that oil exporters and import-dependent economies are diverging, with higher commodity prices improving export earnings for some while widening deficits for others .
